According to ESPN’s FPI Rankings, the Volunteers from Tennessee Are Among the Best

Ranking tenth in ESPN’s inaugural Football Power Index (FPI) update for the 2025 season, the Tennessee Volunteers have sent a message of high national anticipation despite a lackluster showing in more conventional preseason surveys. Although the Vols were not included in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Top 25, analytical metrics show that Josh Heupel’s program is doing well.

With a 97.5% probability of winning six games or more, the FPI projects a 9-3 record for Tennessee. The model also projects a 38.5% likelihood of the Vols making the College Football Playoff, which has been extended to 12 teams. With a 2.3% chance of winning the championship, Tennessee has a 5.6% chance of making it to the national championship game. Also, the squad’s odds of winning the SEC championship are 4.2%, and its odds of going unbeaten for the season are a pitiful 0.8%.
These rankings are based on Tennessee’s 2024 campaign, when they went 10-3 and lost in the first round of the College Football Playoffs to Ohio State.

They ended ninth in the final FPI standings. In addition to the FPI, ESPN’s revised SP+ predictions have Tennessee ranked thirteenth overall with an 18.4 team score. At No. 7 nationally with a rating of 13.0, the defense is in first place. Special teams come in at No. 21 with a rating of 0.2, and the offense is in 34th place with a rating of 31.4. The Vols’ defensive prowess and returning experience in crucial areas put them in a position to make another run at the playoffs, according to sophisticated metrics. However, traditional rankings may not yet reflect their ceiling.